This point was brought up in a discussion between attempting the home run strike versus the option of working the disc up the field.
These same statistics are used on Basketball, soccer, etc where ball-exchange is required to move towards the score. Best described this way:
There is an inherent risk with every pass; every time a disc exchange occurs from one O player to another. If you have to complete ten 15 yard passes to go 50 yards overall; or one 50 yard pass – which has the highest return value.
Now that depends on a few things, the two situations are:
1. What percentage do you assign to each 15 yard pass – let’s say 90% just for the sake of argument?
2. And what percentage do you assign to the 50 yard pass – let’s say 60% for the sake of argument? I think I will make 6 out of 10 passes that I decide to throw that are about 50 yards long. Doesn’t sound like a percentage anyone can live with; does it?!?
So, what are the chances of your team going 50 yards? Well this is easy with #2, it is 60% - we have already said, we will complete that pass 6 out of 10 times. What about #1; well that is easy also if you know probabilities and mathematics: 35%! Surprised? Ok – you can plug in any numbers. I would guess that I might make 6 out of 10 50 yard throws that I decide to throw. In our come-to drill, we often got closer to 96% completion (without defenders). But let’s assume, for the sake of a number that is 6% better, a 96% completion rate. Is the long game still the better gamble to go 50 yards? Answer: short game, with a 96% completion rate, we will now go 50 yards 66% of the time. So now the short game has a better expected outcome. Look at the difference between a 90% completion rate and a 96% completion rate – 35% vs 66% over 10 throws!
So there IS a break-even point. This is why national level teams must stress having 95% or better completion rate within the area of the come-to drill. You have to be > 95% inside 20 yards. Making decisions and owning the throw you decide on. Outside of 20 yards, you need tools to maximize your output there. These are isolation and separation and then putting the pass out in front of your receiver. This helps increase whatever the percentage is for > 20 yard passes. It is simple math.
Now, don’t forget about other intangibles, such as:
i. If I turn the disc over in my half of the field versus at the far end in their endzone – the risks of their travelling the distance of the field and scoring is much less if they have to go 70 yards. And then the trade-off of the percentage of the time that they turn it back over and give you the short field! This tends to add a few percentage points to the long throw and take a few away from the short game! This is called playing the field-position game in the NFL.
Think about it like poker. You are supposed to calculate EV (Expected Value) of every bet based on odds of many things that you must place probabilities on; e.g. the chance that they have a winning hand, or are on a draw. Pot Odds vs bet you are being asked to make. And so on. Anyone is sadly mistaken if they think this cannot be applied to all aspects of everything – yes – even disc control in Ultimate.
Now with that said and that you now understand the importance of disc control; I taught, above all else on offense, throwing skills and the skill of giving you the tools to increase your completion rate.
By Jeff Jones
(edited and complied by Jimmy Donnellon)
